Wednesday, December 03, 2008

Bailouts

I was digging around the archives looking for a post I thought I'd created, but it must have just been an email I sent to the die hard fans on my mailing list.  It was my proposal for the banking industry bailout and it went something like this: 

If you want my money, these are the rules: (for PUBLICLY OWNED/TRADED COMPANIES)

1.  Salaries of all "c-level" employees (CEO, CFO, CIO...) are not to exceed 20 times the average salary of your full-time employees, or, if you prefer, not to exceed 30 times your lowest paid employee including part-timers.

2.  C-level benefits packages must be available to all full-time employees at similar proportions of their incomes.  

3.  No other form of compensation (options, parachutes, trusts) may be provided to C employees that are not also available to and resonably attainable by all other full time employees.  

4.  You can return to your ridiculous pay structures as soon as you've paid back all principal and interest.  

If you don't like these terms, don't take the money.  Four rules.  Simple as that.

Remember,  it's you bastards who got rich while the rest of us lost our homes and our jobs over the last seven years.  Don't wait too long for us to come to your rescue.

These rules were part of my proposal for publicly-owned and traded companies, but especially for those financial companies who sit at the top of the funnel, up through which all of America's money passes.  

To that I'd like to add that it's time the people on top of that funnel, where the entire nation's wealth is concentrated should be subject to THE MOST scrutiny and REGULATION of any other industry in America.  That's ALL of OUR money up there.  They skim the most of it off and keep it for themselves as it is, and that's fine as long as their practices are sound.  You don't have to be a financial genius to know that naked short selling isn't sound and shouldn't even be legal.  WTF!?

But what pissed me off the most about the whole deal was that these are the same people who call welfare, adequate public education funding and universal healthcare "socialism" but when the money goes the other direction it's "vital to our economic stability."

These bailouts are welfare.  Plain and simple.  The only difference is that the tax money is going straight to the top... as if even the welfare must now trickle down to save us.  Our money just wasn't getting funneled up fast enough -  Bush's plan to sell out middle Amercia to Big Corporate wasn't working fast enough, so now we'll print more money than we have, hand it directly over to those at the top of the chain and put the bill on the middle Americans who actually manage to keep their jobs... and their kids and grandkids.  The dollar goes down, the debt goes up and the guys who got us into this mess walk away with fat wallets, as usual.  That's the only "economy" we're saving.  The pressure and the deadline (fear tactics) for the billions we handed over to the banks came straight out of the "we must invade Iraq" playbook.  And though raising taxes is a horrible idea, every man, woman and child in America is now strapped with an additional 3-grand to pay back at some point... but it's not a tax, so that's cool.  We don't want to raise taxes 'cuz it would kill the economy!

So now we're contemplating bailing out the auto industry as well.  There are certainly a lot of perspectives from which to approach this.  As an Ohioan, whose household income has been comprised in parts varying from 2/3 to 1/2 from the auto industry over the years, it's a tough line to walk.  The funny thing is, the employers providing that income have been either German or Japanese since the early 90's.  Those German and Japanese employers' biggest customers have been Ford, GM, and Chrysler, but they've also made parts for Honda, Toyota, Nissan and a few others here and there.  My wife and my brother both currently work for German companies whose primary customers are the Big Three.  Fortunately for both of them (and me) their companies also supply the OTHER American auto industry, so while their business has slowed with the economy, their fates don't rest solely with the Big Three.

Having lived in the shadow of the Honda Engine plant in Anna, OH, I'm amazed at how many large companies and mom and pop shops spring up to support that operation.  What's so amazing is how so many jobs can be ignored by so large a segment of America.  Whenever I hear someone tell a Honda driver to "buy American" I wonder what they're talking about.  I don't know if it's true anymore, but the Ohio-built Honda Accord was for a number of years the MOST American of any car "made in America."  Show me a car company that has invested more in Ohio jobs in the last 20 years than Honda?  Show me a plant newer than the Marysville assembly or Anna engine plants.  My point is, the auto industry in America, and especially in Ohio, isn't dead, there are just a few new names.

There are plenty of viable automotive manufacturers employing thousands of Americans across the U.S.   They don't need bailed out and sales of some of their models have even increased.  Their business model is slightly different than the Big Threes' models. They anticipate and build to the market (what a novel idea to let the market dictate) rather than just building cars that won't be bought to satisfy ill-advised union contracts accepted when times were good. They pay decent wages in a clean, safe environment, and best of all, they pay taxes.  Their employees pay taxes, and they and their employees are likely to survive this recession. That union part is a whole other post, but the business model is a key part of my plan for the auto industry bailout... so now that I've told that story, I can tell this one:

I will add only one modification to my bank bailout rules for the auto industry and it is this:  auto industry execs need not apply.

Don't patronize me with your $1 annual salary offers.  And don't bother telling me you'll now do what Jimmy Carter warned you about in 1977.  We probably shouldn't have done it for the banks either, but two wrongs won't make it right.

Ford says they can weather this storm, having finally acted on Carter's pleas about 28 years later.  Yep, they started building a more fuel efficient product line about three years ago.  They can meet payroll and suffer through until about 2011 according to them, so they don't need it.

Chrysler already had their chance.  I don't know what their prospects are and I've given up trying to understand how much of it belongs to Mercedes, so someone will have to enlighten me on that, but they're out anyway.

The best thing that could happen to GM is to declare bankruptcy and start over.  I'm not sure what effect that will have on the entire U.S. economy, but it's a long time coming.  This is a company who had a production electric car on the market more than ten years ago.  Do you know how many of those they could have sold had they continued to work on that and have, say 100,000 of them perfected and ready to go last spring when gas prices topped $4 a gallon?  Gas will cost that much again, and how much closer to having that old idea ready to go will GM be? They put their money into Hummers, full-size trucks and SUVs not because that's what they predicted the market would bear next year or five years from now, but because that's what was profitable right here and right now.  Now that moment has passed and they find themselves in a bit of a pickle.  Well, you get what you pay for... and what we've paid for all this time.  Don't ask us for more.

My advice to GM is to stick to the small government manifesto that they preached to congress 30 years ago:  let the market run its course.  (actually, they said what's good for GM is good for the nation, but the point was "leave us alone")  So we should heed that point now.  If your business plan accounts for that market, you'll be just fine.  If not, the market will correct itself and you and in the long run we'll all be better for it.  Maybe they should ask their buddies in Big Oil for some extra cash.

I'm sure it will cause quite a ripple if the big G really fails and I'm not sure how comfortably my household will survive it, but like the evil drill sergeant always said during PT, "you can pay me now or you can pay me later."  Might as well pay him now cuz it sure looks like we're all screwed anyway.  Why prolong it?

It doesn't make much sense to offer loans to a company we know can't pay us back when we can buy a majority stake in that company for about 10% of what they seek in loans.  I was an English major, but that's not tough math.  I have to agree in part with Michael Moore - Detroit born and raised, former UAW employee - when he says the best plan for GM would be for the gov't to take it over, convert its facilities to start retrofitting America for mass transit, and when it turns a profit, pay ourselves back and sell it off the highest bidder.  (I know, I know, his arguments are usually just the left version of Rush Limbaugh's... oversimplified, etc. but hey, why not start up a New Deal kind of CCC - Obama's been talking about it anyway.  As soon as we're done in Iraq, we've got a couple a billion a week to pour into it!)

I've heard the argument that cities like LA, who needs it most, were built before true, efficient mass transit was a real concern and that it just won't work there, but I have only one thing to say to that: Rome.  It may not have been built in a day, but it was around a long time before the first commuter train ever appeared.  There's no reason we can't line every major commuter path in American with light rail, skyrocketing the economy and reducing our dependence on so much oil all in the same public works/GM project.  How many frickin jobs will that create?

All right, it's way past my bed time and I've covered more than enough topics for one post.
Laters
Luth
 


23 comments:

Bill said...

Let me get my ramble on here...Luth style:

Grew up in Ohio, live now in Michigan. I've only owned American cars. Three Fords, three GMs (Saturns, all) and now a Honda. The Honda was built in Marysville by friends and family.

Heard today that GM is now thinking about closing down the Saturn brand altogether. This after "bringing the nameplate under the umbrella" and, after making good cars for years, lately producing not a single one I would consider buying. Not for lack of trying. I am a loyal customer; I bought the first one because I liked the work arrangement that they had going on in Spring Hill, KY where they built the 1995 SL that is still on the road today with nearly 300k miles on it. At a stop light, you can't even tell it's running. My brother has driven it for the second 150k after we had it for the first sequecentennial cruise.

Are you serious GM? Ending the Saturn brand. Really. That's like saying "hmm...I have another bullet left, is there a foot I haven't shot myself in yet?"

Here's my idea. Take half of whatever the bailout is supposed to cost and create a venture capital competition for innovative new transportation concepts. Let the geeks compete for the money and see if we can't come up with the small 100 or the mid-sized 20 to replace the big 3. Worked in Silicon Valley.

Anonymous said...

I think it's unanimous with all three of us. Mark your calendar, Luth.

You allude to a big paradox, the auto industry has historically favored small government and now they are the ones looking for a government handout. Corporate welfare.

I find it interesting because on your blog in the past I have defended American owned car manufacturers against those of you who are fans of Japanese vehicles. Now I'm saying let the Big Three survive or fall on their own.

Historically, Democrats have not supported big business and Republicans have. Democrats have supported this auto bailout and Republicans have opposed it. Another paradox.

But, I agree that many of the cars like Honda are in some ways more American that even Chevy, the bottom line is where do the profits end up. With the Big Three they end up here, with Honda and Toyota et al, they end up overseas. It really shows we have a global economy and nothing is simple. And, so often those Buy American bumper stickers are pasted on clapped out, rusted Chevy or Ford trucks. Just how is that helping the American economy?

That said, for full disclosure, I own an Oldsmobile, Kia (Korean), and a Chrysler Crossfire (Chrysler in name, but 80% Mercedes and built in Germany). Guess that makes me a mongrel or just confused.

Luth said...

"With the Big Three (profits) end up here..."

BULLSHIT!

Sorry for the lack of restraint there, but that's all there is to it. It's a myth usually used to follow up the "buy American" grunt.

If GM had put the billions they spent to build gas guzzlers in China to work here in America, building cars Americans would buy when fuel costs $4 a gallon, they wouldn't be in the mess they're in. To make that long story short, GMs profits went to China.

AS for the other two... well there's Daimler-Chrysler - the German name comes first for a reason - and Ford, whose most successful move in the last decade has been its partnership with Mazda. At least that partnership is still headquartered in Detroit. But all three of them have only closed plants in the US and moved operations to Mexico or farther away. Is that what you mean by "staying here?"

The only folks who seem to be investing automotive profit in the US are the Germans and the Japanese.

Profit stays here... HA! That's funny. Even if it were true, unless your name was Ford, you wouldn't see it anyway.

Unknown said...

Well, the Germans got wise and sold Chrysler back to a U.S.-based private venture capital group - Cerberus...(yes, that three-headed hellhound that guards the passage to Hades in Greek Mythology)..nice eh?

So...in that case, it's folks who run hedge funds (already been bailed out, dontcha know?) that are asking to be bailed out...

Buying American is pretty darn tough to do in any case, btw, when you talk about how cars are actually built. Even if the assembly plant and/or engine plants are in the U.S., parts manufacturers have been no less immune to the incentives to locate outside the U.S. that sprang up under NAFTA (that Clintonian project).

Even with their encore performance yesterday, the American auto companies really missed an opportunity here to re-imagine the role they play vis-a-vis the American economy, if you ask me.

They *could* have said we'll do for this century what we did for the last, innovate the manufacture of transportation solution that will make the American economy the strongest in the world. Note where the innovation lies. Not in *what* they build...but how they built it. That was Ford's contribution to, er, Ford-ism. Where we need leadership is on the question of scale...there are any number of brilliant new transportation concepts out there. You guys figure out how to make the manufacture of them on a large scale feasible. Go. Now.

We're getting our cars elsewhere for now. You lost that edge. Go solve this other problem and you might see us coming back.

Anonymous said...

Well, OK Luth, I'm not really going to argue with you because with the nascent auto industry in China, you are correct. BTW, the Buick brand is hot over there. I was thinking more in terms that it is the high rollers in the companies raking in the millions in salaries and perks and with the big 3, those guys are here whereas the high rollers for Honda and the rest would be in Japan. But, I may be looking at it too simply. It's more of a perception thing that the profits for the big 3 stay here and the Japanese mfg'ers head overseas.

Peace. Didn't mean to rile you. I think we really are on the same side on this issue.

Bill is correct, Mercedes was wise to sell off Chrysler, it was becoming a money pit for them. Initially, many thought the marriage would improve the Chrysler breed, but in the end it was dragging down Mercedes and tarnishing their image.

Luth said...

I kind of remember that about Chrysler now that you guys mention it. By the way, the "bullet left-foot to shoot" comment has been stuck in my head since I read it! Cracks me up.

Anyhoo, I wasn't really riled, just sensitive to that particular myth.

Peace back at both of you and y'orn during this most wonderful of buying seasons!

Anonymous said...

OK, enough of the love-fest. I gotta give an alternative view. It's easy to throw stones at the big 3 accusing them of this being self inflicted because of what they built. But, is that true?

What is the #2 best selling car? The Chevy Impala. The Chevy even beats out Honda according to recent statistics. For the past several years what has been the most popular vehicles? Ford and Chevy trucks. SUV's are very popular too. So popular the Japanese auto manufacturers have had to jump on the truck/SUV bandwagon. Both Toyota and Nissan are now making monster pickups.

Why? Because that is what Americans are buying. Around here most typical car lots display the trucks/SUV's in the front and put the cars behind. Again, there's a reason for that.

So, who made the lousy decisions that have put the American car manufacturers in this precarious position? The Big 3 management or the consumers?

Do Americans want mass transit like you propose, Luth? Isn't that almost taking away some of our freedom?

I anxiously anticipate your flames.

Bill said...

This just in...capitalism means catering to the shifting desires of the market. It's not a question of selling this or that car, it's a question of adequately addressing the market in a way that is sustainable over time.

The big three made some missteps. They bet too heavily in some areas and are not as agile as they need to be to shift when they need to.

What baffles me, for example, is how Ford can't sell the cars it sells into the European market here...now..like today. No, they say, not until 2010. Well...that's too slow. Sorry guys. You lose.

See this: http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_37/b4099060491065.htm?chan=autos_autos+--+lifestyle+subindex+page_top+stories

Anonymous said...

Many car buffs have the same complaint, Bill. Why can't they sell the same cars here sold elsewhere. Even the Japanese do that do us, sell us what they perceive we want and save the really good toys for their home market. Often times the Hondas built and sold here were not as sporty driving as the ones built and sold in Japan because it was perceived we all wanted Buicks. But we bought them anyway and thought they were wonderful.

So again, whose fault is it, the auto makers or the consumers?

Bill said...

This is my point...isn't a tenet of capitalism that the market, and the consumer writ large, is never wrong? we want what we want until we don't want it anymore. And at that point, we want something else. Cruel? perhaps. But such is the market, baby.

Anonymous said...

That's the harsh truth, Bill. And the big 3 got caught napping.

So, why isn't this affecting Toyota and Honda and Nissan? They must be selling fewer cars, too. Could it be they have been heavily subsidized by the Japanese government? Nissan in recent years has struggled. Mitsubishi is into so many other businesses, their diversification has saved them a few times. Maybe GM should start making refrigerators again.

Anonymous said...

"When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first things to be bought and sold are legislators."

P.J. O'Rourke

Anonymous said...

Saw on the news tonight there is a lot of discontent that we aren't seeing any results from the $700 billion given to the financial industry. So, what makes us think bailing out the auto industry will work?

Bill said...

I'm not convinced either, to be honest. Though it is certain that we in Michigan stand to take an enormous hit (one estimate has the dip in tax revenues, alone, eviscerating the K-12 school budget) if the auto companies start to fold...I can't say that it isn't something we shouldn't just suck up and take.

Luth said...

It'll definitely be worse... far worse, before it's better again. We're still seeing this iceberg from afar and the pain inflicted thus far has merely been due to erratic course correction. Once it actually starts ripping open our hull, we're goin' down hard.

Ray, the Asian big three are selling fewer cars, but they're also making fewer (while GM continues to put in increased orders from suppliers as if they know they won't have to pay any of them!!) The Asian big three have always built to the market rather than building to the union contract. US Big Three will either fix that or die.

As I mentioned in my rant against bailing them out, I don't know how severely we'll all feel the effects of such a death and I'm not sure I want to find out. If the banks get money for nothing with no conditions, then it's fair the automakers should too - yep, I am and will remain both ambivalent and mid-brained, but I had to take a stand to post on the subject! Now I'm free to reverse it.

I do, however happen to believe in capitalism... let the market decide their fate if it hasn't already.

Anonymous said...

Luth, the Japanese gave us Just In Time manufacturing and even though some of the American Auto industry practices it to an extent, the Japanese are much better at it. Actually, that was the concept used when Saturn was initiated, they studied the Japanese system and tried to copy it.

But historically, the Japanese have provided their auto industry heavy subsidies which has allowed them to sell cars for less money or provide a better quality vehicle for the same amount of money.

I'm finding the union angle an interesting one. This weekend I was in Ocean City, MD and the hotel provided copies of the Washington Post who had some excellent articles from both sides. I will just say that my profession is anti-union, so you can guess my position. In your original rant you went on about C suite salaries, and justifiable so. It is ridiculous. But, I also find it ridiculous the wage and benefits enjoyed by the auto workers. Something is wrong when in our market you have line workers earning near or over 6 figures and even if skilled, that is considerably higher than what other skilled workers earn. When I retire, I will get 18 months of insurance through COBRA, then I'm on my own. Most of the rest of industry does likewise.

Luth said...

For the record, W. Edwards Deming gave statistical control and the ensuing quality and efficiency to the Japanese in the 50's. Ford was the first to listen to Deming in the U.S. and only after his Japanese version of a transmission also being made in the U.S. became sought after over its American counterpart in "American" cars. In the 80s... a mere 30 years later, Ford was ready to admit someone else might know something about how to build cars. This is probably one of several reasons why their CEO says they can weather this storm and remain solvent through at least 2009 with or without a bailout.

Now the question is, will the commercial real estate crash, which is apparently following closely on the heals of the personal crash, extend the recession even longer than that?

I'm starting to be sorry I brought this up. Can we start arguing religion again? I've been listening to Christopher Hitchens's GOD IS NOT GREAT in the car lately to get me through the increased driving I've been doing. You'd LOVE it!!

Anonymous said...

The Americans rejected Deming back in the 40s and 50s and so he took his toys to Japan and helped them rebuild after the war using his mfg/quality ideas. And for the record, it is Statistical Process Control, using measurable data to explain a process and then adjust the process accordingly. Tools such as scatter diagrams, fishbone diagrams and pareto charts, among many others were used. The Americans began to catch up to the Japanese with the advent of Total Quality Management in the 80s and 90s, which really turned out to be a bust, though some of the concepts are still in use today.

Bill, above, lamented the possible demise of Saturn, and justifiably so. Saturn was set up to emulate the Japanese methods and processes and philosophies. If anything GM should be pushing Saturn even harder at this point.

I've been listening to the New Testament in the car during my daily commute to work. You'd love it.

Luth said...

Oh, caught you online, did I. I just sat back down to make sure the camera memory is emptied in order to catch a few moments of tonight's 7th and 8th grade choir concert. So I'll add this to our conversation:

That's the "Fish"-ikawa diagram to you, mister.

And I'm sure I'll revisit the New Testament again at some point, but I've had my fill for now. Try something new, my friend!

Anonymous said...

OK, this is the 20th post to this thread. Is that a record? Do I win a prize?

Luth said...

I believe you may have the record. Unfortunately all I can offer you is full enlightenment.

So you got that going for you.

Unknown said...

Which is nice.

I have nothing to add at this point. My commute is short, so I just listen to music in the car. Or, in the afternoon, NPR news.

Next post please. :)

Anonymous said...

Anybody up for an all NY Super Bowl?